COFFEE CRISIS? THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN WHAT WE DRINK AND WE WE GROW
Over the past decades, the world has developed an insatiable taste for coffee. From Tokyo to Zurich, consumption is steadily climbing — driven by emerging markets, specialty coffee culture, and changing lifestyles.
However, behind the scenes, coffee production is under increasing pressure.
– Climate instability
– Aging farmer populations
– Lack of incentives
– Diseases like coffee leaf rust
All these topics are compromising the ability of producing countries to keep up.
On top of these parameters, we can add structural condition increasing the pressure on demand and availability of coffee:
– Brazilian and Vietnamese productions under pressure
– Logistic challenges such as problems at Suez canal
– China and India increased demands
– Lack of coffee pickers: migration of population from countryside to urban aeras or developed countries
– EU deforestation regulation
Recent data reveal a striking discrepancy between global coffee consumption and coffee production. While consumption grows at ~2% annually, production remains volatile — subject to the biennial bearing cycle, weather anomalies, and shifting investment patterns in origin countries.
The graph below from ICO data, tells the story clearly
This gap isn’t just about supply and demand economics. It raises important questions:
How can producing countries adapt to climate and market constraints?
What role can consumers and industry actors play in supporting more sustainable models?
Examples of coffee consumption in China today:
China
Total Consumption: China’s coffee consumption has surged over the past decade, with a nearly 150% increase, reaching approximately 6.3 million 60-kg bags in the 2024/25 period.
Per Capita Consumption: Despite rapid growth, per capita consumption remains relatively low compared to Western countries.
Market Growth: China’s coffee market expanded by 31% in 2021 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.63% between 2022 and 2025.
The main conclusion concerns coffee prices in the future: I don’t think we can go back to the low prices we had during COVID pandemia and just after it. We will probably stay between 250 to 500 US cents/lb in the next few years.
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